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Swine flu peak scenario: Hospital beds overrun in 15 states

October 1, 2009
by Lee Bowman
Scripps Howard News Service

At least 15 states could run out of hospital beds during the peak of an H1NI swine flu outbreak that sickens 35 percent of the population, according to a report released today by public health advocates.

Another 12 states are likely to see 75 percent or more of their hospital bed capacity filled by a surge in flu cases, based on estimates from a model developed by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The estimates prepared by the Trust for America's Health assume that the new swine flu will remain relatively mild and behave and spread in similar fashion to the 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic, running its course in about eight weeks.

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